Visualizing COVID-19 with Cold and

Flu Product Data from Mercato

It may seem like years since the COVID-19 pandemic began, but it was just a few months ago that people across the country were running to stores only to find empty shelves.

Before news broke that some products were essentially useless in the fight against COVID-19 and that ibuprofen may actually be dangerous to ingest, Americans chose to stock up on products they thought were crucial to battling the novel coronavirus and quarantine itself.

Toilet paper, cold and flu products, disinfectants, and canned foods were nowhere to be found for weeks. 

While we likely all have firsthand experience with the shortages, how extensive were the spikes in sales nationwide?

Did cold and flu products fly off the shelves at the same time cases were exponentially increasing, and do the states with spikes in sales coincide with the states with the highest COVID-19 cases?

We used Mercato’s database to analyze cold and flu product sales and compared them to The New York Times’ daily COVID-19 case tracking data. Keep reading to see what we found.

Spikes Signal Upcoming Pandemic

The first interaction between COVID-19 and the United States dates back to January 20, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced three U.S. airports would begin screening for the virus.

But at that point, pandemic panic hadn’t really set in. It wasn’t until February 23 that cold and flu products went from nearly zero sales to almost 1,600 units per day.

While the U.S. declared a public health emergency 20 days prior to the spike, the drastic rise in cold and flu product sales came two days before the CDC announced that COVID-19 was heading toward pandemic status.

Shortly after, sales went on a downward spiral, decreasing to around 500 units sold, while COVID-19 cases reached 1 million. As U.S. COVID-19 cases increased to 8.5 million, cold and flu product sales remained well under 200 units.

However, as flu season approaches, those who didn’t stock up back in February or who’ve already depleted their stash may cause cold and flu products to spike once again.

State of Sales vs. Cases

With cold and flu medication sales spiking months before COVID-19 cases peaked, did a spike in sales act as a warning sign in states hit hardest by COVID?

Interestingly, California – the state with the second-highest total number of COVID cases – saw three major spikes in cold and flu product sales – all before cases reached 100K.

Illinois and New York experienced similar trends, with cold and flu product sales soaring and subsequently decreasing before the number of COVID-19 cases took off.

On the other hand, while Massachusetts, Oregon, and Pennsylvania also saw spikes in medication sales prior to COVID cases surging, these three states continued to see spikes of varying degrees throughout the pandemic.

Nevertheless, the initial spikes in cases were significantly greater than any that followed, hinting that sale spikes could have been a significant indicator of what was to come.

Tylenol Takes Over

No cold or flu products can cure COVID-19, but in the early days of the pandemic, experts pointed the public to products that would lower fever and reduce aches and pains.

However, the majority of cold and flu product purchases consisted of lozenges – accounting for the majority of sales between February 23 and March 15.

Beginning in March, Tylenol became the top-selling cold and flu product, only decreasing to near pre-pandemic levels around May.

While Tylenol sales had a late start, all Tylenol products outnumbered every other product significantly, including lozenges.

Between January 5, 2020, and July 26, 2020, Tylenol products reached nearly 3,500 total units sold, while lozenges totaled just under 2,500 units sold.

Total sales of Vicks DayQuil and NyQuil, along with allergy, cough, and sinus products, didn’t come close to surpassing 500 sales, and Advil and ibuprofen sales totaled just 211 units.

Replenishing Stashes

At the start of the year, nobody could have predicted a pandemic would take over the world, businesses would shut down for weeks, and stores would run out of essential products.

However, looking back, it’s clear sales of cold and flu products could have been the clear signs we were all looking for.

Across the country, sales of cold and flu products spiked well before cases began their exponential climb, with some states seeing a spike in sales months before a spike in cases. 

Nevertheless, the spike in cold and flu product sales wasn’t a perfect indicator of which states would be hit hardest by COVID-19. In fact, the states hit hardest by COVID-19 saw significantly more volatility in medicine and related product sales throughout the pandemic.

Whether the numerous peaks and dips reflected people running out of products or more people needing them, Mercato makes it easy to restock goods or find stores with availability.

From cold and flu products to fresh food from local grocers, we deliver what you need straight to your door. To learn more, visit us online today.

Methodology and Limitations

All medication/illness remedy data was taken from sales on the Mercato platform between January 1 and October 22, 2020.

All data related to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is sourced from The New York Times and can be found here.

Preprocessing was carried out using Python 3.7.3 and the pandas library v1.1.3. Tabulations/visualizations were created in Tableau Public 2020.2 and Flourish.

Because sales data are only limited here to transactions taking place on the Mercato platform, it is (by definition) limited to a small fraction of the total over-the-counter medication and remedy sales in the United States.

Moreover, many Mercato merchants may not have had certain types of products available at certain times, meaning sales data here likely underrepresent total demand.

Full caveats and explanations regarding The New York Times COVID-19 data can be found in their GitHub repository.

Fair Use Statement

The pandemic isn’t over just yet, and the public may want to keep an eye on sales to anticipate another surge of cases.

Feel free to share this study with your readers for noncommercial purposes to keep the public in the loop. All we ask is that you include a link back to this page to ensure our contributors receive proper credit.